Page 8 - December 2004 • Southern California Gaming Guide

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAMING GUIDE
Column: Video Poker with Bob Dancer
Page 8
DECEMBER 2004
Will Things Break Even in Video Poker? by Bob Dancer
Iwas reading a column by Mike Caro in a poker magazine a few years ago where he argued that in live poker, things will not break even over the course of a year, or even a lifetime. When you include abilities and emotions and nancial strengths, there are so many variables at the poker
table that some situations occur so rarely that they have no chance to even out. Caro is undoubtedly correct.
e reason is that we need to make decisions before we know what is going to happen. ose may not turn out best after we have seen the results, but the time to make decisions is when these things are still up in the air. We know things will not average out over the year, or a lifetime for that matter, but we don’t know which things will be high and which things will be low.
Assuming things will average out is probably the best decision to make beforehand, as long as we can a ord the swings. (Which is a di erent matter entirely and will be discussed some other time.) So when you are dealt A♥ A♠ A♦ 4♣
4♥ in Double Bonus, throw the fours away and go for the aces. On average this is the best play, although usually it will cost you! But the twice- in-forty-seven times you get the 800-coin quad aces will more than make up for the shortfalls when you don’t. If you can’t bear to break up the full house, you are either playing for stakes that are too high for you, or shouldn’t be gambling anyway.
Bob Dancer is America’s best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of “how to play better video poker” products, including Winner’s Guides, strategy cards, videos, and the award-winning computer software, Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his recent novel, Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer’s products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com
In video poker, however, there are not so many variables. e machine will always play according to a consistent random number generator. You don’t have to be concerned about whether the machine is in a good mood or a bad mood or has just won or lost. (Of course some people do take these things into consideration, but these players are not winning players. Winning players ignore such factors.) Surely if you played quarter Deuces
Wild for two thousand hours a year, assume one million hands, you’d get what you deserved. Wouldn’t you?
Maybe. In Deuces Wild, royals happen every 45,000 hands or so. ( is is not a typo.) e usually given gure of 40,000 hands is approximately accurate for Jacks or Better, but not Deuces Wild. e reason you get fewer royals at Deuces is because of hands such as A♥ K♥ Q♥ 2♣ 5♦. In Jacks or Better you have a 1,080-to-1 shot at the royal when you hold A-K-Q. In Deuces, you have no chance at the royal because you should hold
A-K-Q-2.) In one million hands, you should receive 22
royals. You might, but you probably won’t. You might receive 18 royals. You might receive 27. It will be around 22, but could be a few o one way or the other. Assuming you are a quarter player, the di erence between 18 royals and 27 royals in a year is $9,000. at’s quite a swing for quarter players. And, depending on the slot club, you’d earn $10,000 a year with this much play if you played the best game perfectly.
What if you play sometimes for quarters and sometimes for dollars? If you get more than your proper allotment of royals for dollars and less than your proper allotment for quarters, everything would be just ne.
You will like your year-end score. But the other way around and you can chalk up a losing year.
Video poker strategies are based on the premise that things will average out. But we know they won’t. e question then arises: If we know things are not going to average out, why on earth do we base our strategies on an assumption that we know will be wrong?