Page 12 - February 2006 • Southern California Gaming Guide

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAMING GUIDE
What’s a Bird in the Hand Doing in the Kitchen? by Bob Dancer
You’ve heard the old proverb that “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” It means you should prefer a guaranteed sure thing to a riskier bigger thing that includes the possibility of blowing up in your face.
Another common idiom is,“If you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen.” is tells us that the rewards in life aren’t for the timid.
Which of these maxims is more relevant to video poker? Let’s see. Assume you are playing dollar 10/7 Double Bonus and are dealt AAA77. It doesn’t matter that this isn’t your normal game. You’ll understand the point anyway.
them together and divide by the 1,081 possibilities. Doing this gives us $50.57, which is the ve coin expected value. Since this is greater than the guaranteed $50 we get from holding the full house, we toss the sevens and go with the aces.
In the second case we multiply $50 by 5, $15 by 7, $10by5,$5by9and$0by21,addupthesenumbers and divide by 47. If we do this correctly, we should come up with $9.57 as the ve-coin expected value of going for the straight ush. Since this is lower than the guaranteed $10 for a straight, we hold all ve cards.
Doing this math is slow and cumbersome, of course, and mistake-prone for many. You only need to do the math if you have no other resources handy, such as a good computer program or strategy chart. (If you didn’t have a computer program, you could still count the possibilities with a 47-chance one-card draw, but counting the possibilities in a 1,081-chance two-draw or a 16,215-chance three-card draw is out of the question for all but the possessed.)
Relying on pithy sayings for success would be convenient. You’d never have to study once you mastered the clever “words to the wise.” Video poker is more complicated than that. Fortunately.
Why“fortunately”? Because if there weren’t rewards for studying, then everyone would play equally (like on slots) and the casino edge would be huge (like on slots). It’s only because there’s skill involved in video poker and many people won’t go through the e ort to obtain that skill that there’s room for it to be a pro table enterprise for those who do go through that e ort.
Bob Dancer is America’s best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of “how to play better video poker” products, including Winner’s Guides, strategy cards, videos, and the award-winning computer software, Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his recent novel, Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer’s products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com.
Holding the full house is worth $50 in this game, because the “10” in “10/7” refers to how much you’ll receive for a full house per coin bet, and smart players bet ve coins at a time. If we hold AAA and draw two cards, however, there are 1,081 di erent combinations of cards we can draw. Forty six of those combinations (4% of the time) give us four aces worth $800, 67 of those combinations (6% of the time) give us a full house worth the same
hold the 8 as well. Holding the 8 as well gives you a guaranteed $10 straight. Out of the 47 possible combinations that arise when you don’t hold the 8, 5 of them (11%) give you a $50 straight ush, 7 of them (15%) give you a $15 ush, 5 of them (11%) give you another $10 straight, 9 times (19%) you get a $5 three of a kind, and 21 times (45%) you end up with
$50 we just threw away, and 968 (90% of the time) of the combinations leave us with a three-of-a-kind worth $15.
e bird-in-handers would say to keep the full house and the heat- standers would say to just keep the aces.
Now assume you are playing dollar NSU Deuces Wild, where the
e only question is whether or not you’re going to
at all. (And yes it adds up to 101% due to rounding, but 11% is easier to work with than 10.638298%).
is time the bird-in- handers would say to keep the straight and the heat-standers would say to go for the straight ush.
ose who know my teaching methods won’t be surprised to learn that in one of these cases (the second) it’s better to go with the bird-in-handers and in the other (the rst) it’s better to hang with the heat-standers.
Since neither of these proverbs work well, what should we use? e rule that works, of course,
is the rule of expected value. In the rst case we multiply $800 by 46, $50 by 67, $15 by 968, add
“NSU” stands for “not
so ugly” and refers to
the game where 5-of-a-
kinds return 16 for 1 and
straight ushes return
10 for 1. Let’s say you’re
dealt the hand 2♠ 5♥
6♥ 9♥ 8♣. It’s a no-brainer to hold at least the 2569.
go with the aces.”
a hand that scores nothing
“The rule that works, of course, is the rule of expected value. In the first case we multiply $800 by 46, $50 by 67, $15 by 968, add them together and divide by the 1,081 possibilities. Doing this gives us $50.57, which is the five coin expected value. Since this is greater than the guaranteed $50 we get from holding the full house, we toss the sevens and
Page 12 February 2006
Video Poker with Bob Dancer