Page 13 - November 2008 • Southern California Gaming Guide

Jim Mercurio: Poker
YThe Myth of Second Best: The Importance of Game Selection
ou know the joke. If you are sitting at a table and you can’t spot the sh, that means you are the sh. We all want to think that the subtext of the joke is that there is one sh at the table and we hope or (deny) that we are not that sh.
But the truth of the matter is that unless you are by far, the best player at the table, in some games, you are the sh, too. Consider a 1–2 home game where you can beat the game for $30 per hour. Now, let’s say a great player comes in and sits in on that game. How badly does that a ect your win rate?
It depends.
If he sits immediately to your right, his e ect probably isn’t that much. Your overall expectation will go down a bit. If he sits across from you, your expected value in the game is probably cut in one-third or a half.
Your best bet is to just avoid marginal hands that he is in, especially when he has position on you.
But if he sits a couple seats to your left, your expected value in the game could be zero. Or worse, you may have just become a loser in this game. $30 hard-earned bucks an hour...that’s what we said you were making in this game. But what if once an hour, this new player uses his skill and position to take away one medium-sized pot that “belongs to you?”
What if he gets one really good value bet against you every two hours? If the pot is $20 and the value bet is for $25 more than you would pay someone else, he has just cut your win rate by $32.50 per hour.
Another strange scenario that sometimes happens is where everyone is a sh. Imagine this home game
where the expected hourly win-rates for the players are $30, $20, $10, $5, $0, $0, –$5, –$10, –$25, –$25. Now move that home game to a casino where there are 30 hands per hour and an average rake of $4 per hand. If we split up the cost of the rake evenly and, for demonstration, assume every person wins three of the pots (30 pots/10 players) and tips $1, our “adjusted” win rates (subtracting $15 per person) are $15, $5, –$5,
–$10, –$15, –$15, –$20, –$25, –$40, –$40.
Who is the winner in that scenario? e house. If you are the best player at the table and factor in gas and travel time, well...you see the poker high-life ain’t as glamorous as it seems. And now what happens when a really good player comes and sits down with position on the two “winners” in that game? e entire
table, except for him, becomes a net loser in the game. Although it doesn’t happen very often, it’s possible that
there is only one winner in a given game.
I picked these numbers based on instinct and
experience. Are they completely indicative of your
1–2 No-Limit game? Maybe. Is it possible to have three winners in a rake game? Sure, especially if there are a couple of really bad players. But if you are playing for money and don’t seriously think about the level of competition, setting and seat you choose, that distant tapping (is that aquarium glass?) and the soft echo,“Here shy, shy, shy,” just may be aimed at you.
You can buy Jim’s lm Hard Scrambled at www.hardscrambled.com or if you like his column, contact him at jim@jamespmercurio.com.
November 2008 Table Game and Slot Tournaments
BARONA VALLEY RANCH RESORT AND CASINO TUESDAY,November18ththroughTHURSDAY,November20th Birthday Slot Tournament
Any Club Barona member with a birthday in November can participate in a free slot tournament held November 18th through November 20th from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. e top-scoring daily player wins $1,000, with $500 for second and third place. Just present your id and Club Barona card to play. Winners will have one week to claim prizes.
TUESDAYS through FRIDAYS through November 13th Barona’s Treasures of the World Slot Tournament Play in the free daily qualifying slot tournaments from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. to win a seat in Barona’s $260,000 Treasures of the World Championship! e Championship
will be held Friday, November 14th through Sunday, November 16th, and has a $260,000 total
prize package, including a $100,000GrandPrize.
Blackjack with Guaranteed PlayTM
Barona Valley Ranch Resort
and Casino is the rst casino to
introduce Blackjack with Guaranteed
PlayTM, where for one low buy-in price, players
have the opportunity to play at least 30 hands, while the sky is the limit for how much they can win. Players can buy-in with $20 and receive $150 worth of Guaranteed Play Chips at the $5 table; $40 receives $300 worth of chips at the $10 table; and $60 receives $450 worth of chips at the $15 table. Players can take home anything over their Guaranteed Play Chip amount.
Barona’s Three Card Poker Jackpot
Barona’s ree Card Poker progressive jackpot keeps growing. When you place aa small side bet of $1 on each hand, you are automatically quali ed to win all— or part—of the progressive jackpot.
SOBOBA CASINO WEDNESDAYS at 5 p.m.
$1,500 Weekly Blackjack Tournament
Registration begins at 3 p.m., rst qualifying rounds are at 5 p.m. $20 buy-in/$10 re-buys. $1,500
guaranteed in cash prizes. One bonus payout per hand and per player
only.
SUNDAYS from 10 a.m. to noon
Early Bird Bonus Blackjack
Winupto$1,000inbonusesoneveryblackjackgame from 10 a.m. to noon every Saturday in November. Bonuses for three 7’s, suited blackjacks, three blackjacks in a row, and much more.
TUESDAYS and THURSDAYS in NOVEMBER Play Around, Spin Around, Win Around
e Wheel of Cash is back. Win up to $2,500 each Tuesday and ursday in November. One winner every half hour will spin the wheel beginning at 4:15 p.m.
VALLEY VIEW CASINO
MONDAY, November 24th at 4 p.m.
The Kings and Queens of Blackjack Tournament
$40 buy in, $20 re-buys, $5,000 guaranteed prize pool. All tournament participants receive $20 in Match Play if they are Players Club members. Entries may be purchased at the casino cashier. Tournament space is limited, so buying entries early is recommended. For more information, please call 1-866-view-win.
VIEJAS CASINO & OUTLET CENTER
FRIDAYS from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m.
$5,000 Fridays
Cash drawings every Friday from November 7th through November 28th in Blackjack and Asian Games. See V Club for details.
November 2008
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAMING GUIDE
Page 13
Poker: Wired Aces and River Rats Table Game and Slot Tournaments