Page 14 - April 2009 • Southern California Gaming Guide

Bob Dancer: Video Poker
HIow Real Are Dollar-Per-Hour Figures?
frequently write that I calculate that some game is worth $23 per hour, or maybe $87,
or whatever. Often I get criticized when I do, on the basis that these amounts represent “expected value,” which is very di erent from a guaranteed result.
works best for them at the same time savvy players are trying to gure out the current formula. It’s not simple. Still,makinga“bestguess”canhelpyoudecidewhether to play one casino or another.
Some promotions are very di cult to put a gure on, such as you get drawing tickets for getting 4-of-a- kinds, plus regular customers get a lot of tickets in the mail, and there will be a drawing for something worth $20,000. To get any kind of a reasonable idea of how much the tickets are worth (on a dollar per hour basis), you need to have some idea of how many tickets will be in the drawing drum and how often will you get an additional ticket. ese are tough to gure, but clearly they are worth something.
e highest dollar-per-hour opportunity is not necessarily the best goal. After all, there are often things like free meals thrown in, and one casino has much better restaurants than another. ere may be free hotel rooms included. You may think that all hotel rooms are the same, but Shirley and I certainly don’t. We are always willing to play a slightly lesser game for a better amenity package, and health (e.g., too smoky) or safety factors can disqualify a casino completely.
If I calculate a game is worth $20 per hour, I don’t expect that playing the game for ve hours will let me be $100 ahead. (But I would expect playing the game for
500 hours would put me about $10,000 ahead. Nobody cande ne“longterm”exactly,but500hoursisprobably long enough.) e primary reason for taking the time to evaluate the worth of a game is to compare it to other opportunities. If the best other game is worth $15 per hour, I’ll play the rst game. If there are other games worth $30 per hour, no way will I waste my time on a $20 game.
Bob Dancer is America’s best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of “how to play better video poker” products, including his new book, Video Poker for Intelligent Beginners, Winner’s Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer’s products, may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or at 1-800-244-2224 Monday through Friday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Paci c Time.
I agree with that criticism.
e critics further go on to say that since the amounts aren’t guaranteed, after all you won’t know how it turns out until after you’ve played, then it’s worthless to calculate.
I disagree with that. Strongly.
e reason you calculate how much a play is worth is to have the information with which to make an informed choice. In business, this is called forecasting. If a business is trying to decide whether it’s smarter to hire another employee or increase their advertising, there are tools that can
be used to evaluate which
will be better. It’s the same
general idea for a video
poker player.
returns 99.73% + 0.25% = 99.98%. Everything else being equal, the second game is better than the rst.
Sometimes you need to compare di erent denominations. Let’s assume that adding the return on the game to the players club you come up with a 100.3% game for dollars and a 100.8% game for quarters. Which is better? Assuming you can play either at 600-hands- per-hour, an 0.8% advantage for quarters is worth 25¢ x 5 coins per bet x 600 bets per hour x 0.8% advantage per bet = $6 per hour. For dollars, $1 x 5 coins per bet x
600 bets per hour x 0.3% advantage per bet = $9 per hour.
e casinos with same- day cashback are the easiest to gure. Many casinos, however, have deferred cashback. Often there are estimates on various Internet bulletin boards as to how much this is worth. Assuming that deferred cashback is the same as no cashback is a big mistake.
In addition
deferred), sometimes casinos send regular monthly mailers. Perhaps players who play $60,000 per month get monthly checks of $150, in addition to whatever normal players club bene ts there are. e problem is to estimate how much will be in these mailers, factored by whether or not you’ll be in town to collect them. It is often a guess as to how much it takes. Most casinos, after all, don’t want you to know this information precisely.
ey want you to keep playing more hoping to get a bigger mailer. Other casinos change their formula every month. ey’re trying to gure out the formula that
For example, at a given
casino, if my choices are
9/6 Jacks or Better (worth
99.54% when played
perfectly) and 9/6 Double
Double Bonus (worth
98.98% when played
perfectly, although it is
much more di cult to
play perfectly than Jacks
or Better), players serious
losing the least) will always choose 99.54% over 98.98%. It could turn out that you’re dealt AAAA3, in which case you’ll wish you were playing Double Double Bonus, but when you have to choose in advance, smart players choose the higher return.
If we are comparing two di erent casinos, and one has 9/6 Jacks with a .33% players club and another has NSU Deuces Wild (16-10-4-4-3 returning 99.73%) with a
.25% players club, both for the same denomination, the wise player adds them up and compares. e rst game returns 99.54% + 0.33% = 99.88% while the second
“The highest dollar-per-hour opportunity is not necessarily the best goal. After all, there are often things like free meals thrown in, and one casino has much better restaurants than another. There may be free hotel rooms included. You may think that all hotel rooms are the same, but Shirley
and I certainly don’t.”
about winning the most (or
to cashback
(either same day or
Page 14
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAMING GUIDE
April 2009
Video Poker with Bob Dancer