Page 24 - May 2010 • Southern California Gaming Guide

Bob Dancer: Video Poker
WLhich is the Better Casino?
et’s say you found two di erent casinos, both o ering dollar 9/6 Jacks or Better. Casino A o ers a better-than-average players club o ering 1% in cash back. Casino B o ers a worse- than-average players club o ering no cash back at all.
Let’sassumethatthecasinosareotherwiseidentical in terms of comps, amenities, and everything else. is is obviously a contrary-to-fact assumption. ere are no two casinos identical to each other,
and frequently it’s the ability to distinguish these dissimilarities that di erentiates winners from losers, but that’s a subject for another column. In Las Vegas, for example, the casinos that don’t o er cash back frequently o er more in “cash in the mail” o ers, which may be better or worse than same-day cash back. at too is a
On your next trip to Vegas, you played in both casinos again. is time you lost “only” $600 at Casino A, o set by $300 in cash back, and you won
“only” $900 at Casino B.
One more trip with similar results. You lose at
Casino A (which we said was the better one) and you win at Casino B. ree Vegas trips. Similar results each time.
Now, for some reason, you decide that on your next trip you are only going to play in one of the casinos,
will happen sometimes. Playing a good game and losing three times in a row will happen sometimes.
Winning players base primarily their where-to- play decisions on the return of the game itself (in this case, 9/6 Jacks returns 99.54% when played perfectly), the players club (in this case 1%), and any promotions going on, such as double points, or drawing tickets to something if you get a 4-of-a-kind (which were assumed to be equal in this example). To be sure, if one casino has better restaurants or hotel rooms or other amenities, that can sway the choice of winners and losers alike. But we assumed away those di erences this time too.
Players who tell me“I always win at Casino C” or“I never win at Casino D” aren’t winning players. ey are trying to predict the future based on largely- random scores from the past. e ones who tell me
“I play at Casino E because they have 9/6 Jacks or Better, triple points all month, and they have a card- of-the-day promotion where you get an extra $100 if you get 7777 are players who I know are going about the winning process intelligently.
Which type of player are you?
Bob Dancer is America’s best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of “how to play better video poker” products, including the software “Video Poker for Winners,” his new book, Video Poker for the Intelligent Beginner, Winner’s Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer’s products, may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or at 1-800-244-2224 Monday through Friday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Pacific Time.
discussion for another column.
A player who plays 600 hands per hour is moving right along, but certainly setting no records. Some players routinely play over 1,000 hands per hour. But we’ll use our 600-hands player as the norm. at player places $3,000 of action each hour, because 600 hands times $5 per hand equals $3,000. A 1% cash players club means that Casino A gives the player $30 per hour to play there.
At this point, let me ask you which is the better casino to play at?
“Winning players base primarily their where-to-play decisions on the return of the game itself (in this case, 9/6 Jacks returns 99.54% when played perfectly), the players club (in this case 1%), and any promotions going on, such as double points, or drawing tickets to something
if you get a 4-of-a-kind (which were assumed to be equal in this example).”
and you’re trying to decide which would be your better play. Do you choose Casino A (which is theoretically better, but you can’t seem to win there) or Casino B (which is theoretically inferior, but you’ve won every time there)?
Make up your mind before you read on. It really is a simple question.
e correct answer is that Casino A is your better choice— by a mile. It’s the same game and it pays you an extra $30 per hour. End of story. I suggest most winning players
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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAMING GUIDE
May 2010
e answer, obviously,
is Casino A, because the games are the same and Casino A gives you an hourly present of $30.
Let’s say, though, that you played 10 hours at each casino. At Casino A, you lost $1,200 during those 10 hours, o set slightly by $300 in cash back. At Casino B, you won $3,700.
came up with this answer easily.
Most losing players, however, will gravitate to
choosing Casino B because they believe that winning three weeks in a row is somehow signi cant. It’s not. Your score over any particular weekend is largely luck.
Playing a bad game and winning three times in a row
Video Poker with Bob Dancer