Page 24 - January 2011 • Southern California Gaming Guide

Bob Dancer: Video Poker
IWhat is a Mistake?
n mid-November 2009, the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts were playing a football game on a Sunday evening. With slightly more than two minutes left in the game, the Patriots were nursing a six point lead, and faced a fourth down with about two yards to go near
their own 30 yard line. ( at means they were about 70 yards from scoring.) If the Patriots made two yards, they would pretty well be able to run out the clock and preserve the victory. If they went for it and fell short, the Colts would only need to travel 30 yards for the winning score. If the Patriots punted the ball, the standard play in this circumstance, the Colts would need to go 60 or 70 yards in less than two minutes to secure the win. It wouldn’t be impossible for the Colts to get the winning touchdown even from long distance. Peyton Manning, the quarterback of the Colts, is quite adept at these comebacks, but obviously it’s tougher to score from 70 yards away than 30.
On the other side of the coin, it’s almost always a mistake to play 9/6 Double Double Bonus Poker (a 98.98% game), or other game this bad, whether or not you win this particular time. I personally only play 9/6 DDB when the players club is returning 0.9% or higher, which puts it 100% when you include the mailers. A players club returning this much is quite rare. Even then, the margin is very thin given the volatility of the game, but the monthly mailers can make the game worthwhile. Whenever I hear someone bragging about their “four aces and a kicker” jackpot on this game, I congratulate them but also evaluate them as being not very competent players. To my mind, it’s a mistake to be playing this game in the rst place.
To be sure, it’s only a mistake to play such a game if you’re serious about winning. If you’re a recreational player who is willing to lose many thousands of dollars a year at this hobby, ne. Knock yourself out. Winning players appreciate those who willingly make these donations.
Bob Dancer is America’s best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of “how to play better video poker” products, including the software “Video Poker for Winners,” his new book, Video Poker for the Intelligent Beginner, Winner’s Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer’s products, may be ordered at www. bobdancer.com or at 1-800-244-2224 Monday through Friday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Pacific Time.
e head coach of New England, Bill Belichick, widely acknowledged to be one of the smartest coaches in the league (albeit with some dirty-play accusations), decided to go for it.
e Pats ended up barely short. Indy took over and scored the winning touchdown with 13 seconds left in the game.
After the game Belichick was roundly criticized for going for it on fourth and two deep in
decision. If they lose (even playing an excellent game), they feel they made a mistake. Players whose thought processes travel along these lines likely do not have the ability to be long-term winners.
To be a long-term winner at video poker, you need to make a large number of smart decisions. You need to select games where you have the edge over the house, learn the correct strategy, play during
promotions, etc.
ere will be many, many times
along the way when you ended up a loser on an individual session, even if it was an excellent decision to play this particular game on this particular day. Assuming you’re playing within your bankroll, this
is no big deal. It can bug the hell out of you (depending on your personality), but it’s a normal part of playing video poker. Video poker tends to attract players who whine when things don’t go their way.
To be a long-term winner, you need to play games where you have the advantage over the casino. If you had an edge, even if you didn’t end up ahead this particular time, it isn’t a mistake: It’s just the normal ebb and ow of the game.
Whine if you must.
enemy territory. is column isn’t going to be about the football logic on both sides of whether he made the correct call or not. His biggest
“mistake,” as I read and/or listened to
the arguments against him, was that
he made a rather risky decision and
it didn’t succeed this particular time.
Had the play picked up the requisite
two yards, he would be hailed as a
bold genius and the play would be widely praised. Since it didn’t, he was now an idiot and the play was a mistake.
Tomymind,thisisastupidde nitionofa“mistake.”Every decision in life must be made before you know what the results will turn out to be. Whether it is a smart decision or a mistake should be decided based on information available before the decision was made, not after the event is over.
Many video poker players fall into this trap. If they win (even playing a poor game), they feel they made the correct
“To be a long-term winner at video poker, you need to make a large number of smart decisions.”
PAGE 24
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAMING GUIDE
JANUARY 2011