Page 26 - March 2012 • Southern California Gaming Guide

Bob Dancer: Video Poker
It’s Not Worth Anything
e following situation actually happened at the Palms in Las Vegas. ere are, however, casinos in Southern California that sometimes run a similar promotion. at makes the idea presented in it worth discussing.
Afriend of mine,“Toby,” was complaining about his situation in an October drawing at the Palms.“I won a drawing,” he moaned,“but it’s not worth anything. I still have to win another drawing to get anything.”
I had him go through the details of the drawing. I was generally familiar with it, but had decided that the drawings at the Palms weren’t for me. e prizes were too small, and the players with the best chances seem to be the ones who play 1¢ Fifty Play 9/6 Jacks or Better ve hours a day. I have nothing against such players, and I certainly don’t blame them for exploiting a good deal for them, but this is not the battleground where I chose to shoot my bullets. I entered plenty of other drawings elsewhere in October, which were more to my liking. If the Palms ever takes the “not eligible for promotions” stickers o the machines in either of their high-limit rooms, perhaps I’ll choose to compete in their drawings in the future.
Every Friday and Saturday night during the month, eight players won tickets into the October 31st “ nals.” ere was some cash won with each ticket. On October 30th, they had another drawing. Two of the 80 “preliminary” winners win a car (or cash worth approximately $19k and $14k) and eight other winners won a small amount of money. Each of the other
preliminary winners received nothing extra.
“Okay,” I told him before the nal drawing took place.
“Assuming the total prizes add up to $36,000, and there are 80 players with tickets, it seems to me that each ticket is worth $450 (i.e., $36,000/80 = $450.) at’s not a whole lot, but it’s certainly not the same as ‘nothing at all.’ If some players fail to show up on October 30th, the value goes up a little. I’m an example of somebody whose equity is ‘nothing at all,’ because I will have no ticket in the drawing.”
“But it’s not guaranteed!” Toby continued. “I could show up and not win a thing.”
He’s right. He will usually win nothing, but that’s not the same as something being worth nothing at all. Toby is a guy who would prefer a drawing where he got the guaranteed $450 average that his ticket is worth.
e casino, however, wants an event that generates excitement. Having chances to win two cars is more exciting than a guaranteed $450, even if Toby would like it better the other way round. (Actually Toby would like a guaranteed $450 and chances to win two cars. If wishes were horses . . .)
“I still say it’s worth nothing at all.” When Toby latches onto a position, he can hold onto it like a bulldog.
“Okay,” I told him.“I’ll tell you what. I will o er you a deal. I’ll pay you $100 and I’ll take half of what you win, assuming you show up that night. If you win nothing, then I’m out $100 and you have some money in your pocket. If you win a car or one of the other prizes, you keep half of it, minus what you give Uncle Sam. at way you can’t lose. It’s guaranteed.”
“You’re trying to take advantage of me,” he complained. “You just told me you thought it was worth $450. Now
you want half of it for $100. Do you take me for a fool?” “Not exactly. You want a guaranteed win. I’m o ering
you one. In 70-out-of-80 cases, you do well with my deal. In 8-out-of-80, it won’t make much di erence. If you win a car, you’d be better o being by yourself, but you’ll still have a big payday for yourself.
“ ink of it as an insurance policy. I’m insuring you against winning nothing. I’m guaranteeing you that won’t happen. As is usually the case, there’s a cost to the insurance policy. I’ll rarely win, but when I do, I’ll win pretty big.
“If you really believe your position is worth nothing at all, you should jump at my o er. If you think your ticket is worth ‘a little more than $200,’ you should still take my o er, because you highly value a guaranteed win. e only time you should refuse my o er is if you believe your position is worth considerably more than $200.
“If you want my advice as a friend, I think you should refuse the o er and shut up about the ticket being worth nothing. When you keep saying that, it does indeed make you sound foolish.”
Toby ended up rejecting my o er and also he stopped the silly “it’s worth nothing” argument around me for a while. But I’m pretty sure deep down he still believes it.
Listen to Bob’s radio show Gambling With An Edge, on Thursday evenings 7 to 8 p.m. Pacific Time on radio station 1230 AM in Las Vegas online at klav1230am.com. Dancer’s products may be ordered at bobdancer.com or at 1-800-244-2224 Monday through Friday from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Pacific Time.
PAGE 26
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAMING GUIDE
March 2012