Page 22 - September 2004 • Southern California Gaming Guide

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAMING GUIDE
How Much Luck is There in Poker?
Bby Andrew N.S. Glazer, The Poker PunditTM
eginning poker players and advanced poker players rarely concern themselves with the same questions, but there is one that virtually all poker players, regardless of skill, ask regularly: How much luck is there in poker?
3) Always or almost always plays with players who are even better than he is. If you are the 10th best hold’em player in the world, and only play in games with the top nine, you’re going to lose. If you’re the
5,000th best, and only play in games with players “ranked” below 10,000, you’re going to kick butt.
4) Plays too many hands, guring he can outplay people later. Another classic ego mistake: “I’m so good, I don’t have to play perfectly.” Once again, I question whether a player who makes this kind of mistake is really that great.
ere’s a marvelous, terri c, outstanding line in the poker novel Shut Up and Deal. It’s so good that I really wish I had invented it. Paraphrased in a form that ts this article, it is: “ e skill is not what is hard about poker. e skill is easy. e luck is hard. A lot of people can learn to be skilled. Very few people can handle the bad luck.”
Andrew N.S. Glazer was one of the most respected writers in the poker community. A writer for the Detroit Free Press, and for numerous gaming newspapers, magazines and online gaming sites, he was also the author of Casino Gambling the Smart Way and about to be released Idiot’s Guide To Poker. He also wrote a daily column from the World Series of Poker, and was the tournament editor for Card Player magazine. Newsweek called him “a poker scholar” and he was one of the broadcasters for ESPN at the 2002 World Series of Poker. Andy passed away in early July, and we share this article with you as no poker issue could be complete without his input.
Beginners tend to treat poker much like they would treat craps: ey think they’ll win if they catch good cards and lose if they don’t.
As players start to improve, they recognize how much more they know than before, usually overrating their newfound abilities. is puts them in a stage where they feel there is very little luck in poker.
When players become truly advanced, their view on luck is a bit tougher to pin down. Most great players have big poker egos that require them to believe in luck...because if you don’t believe in luck, but you lose, you must not be great. Because these players
“know” they are great...luck returns to the equation. Actually, there’s a second possible conclusion. Either there is luck in poker, even at the highest levels, or the great players don’t always play well. Both statements
are true.
When players of vastly di erent skill levels meet,
there is not much luck in poker. Although even a rank beginner can get lucky against good players for a brief period, if there really is a big di erence in skill, over the long run the beginner might as well be trying to hit a lottery ticket.
How can we reconcile this correct statement with the equally correct observation that top players frequently go broke, or go on very extended losing streaks?
Inmostcases,thesestreaksof“runningbad”arenotthe result of several months or years of phenomenally bad luck. Usually, they happen because the hugely talented player makes one or more the following mistakes:
1) Plays for too high an amount, relative to his bankroll. Generally, a player plays his best poker when the amount of money at stake matters, but isn’t life changing. If the amount at risk is too high, some players can’t play optimally.
2) Goes on emotional tilt and as a result does not play up to his or her abilities. Some players are far more susceptible to tilt than others. If a player has had bad luck for a while, it becomes easier for that player to go on tilt. Bad luck thus brings on bad play, which leads to a cycle of more losing and more tilting. A “good” player who never goes on tilt will almost certainly win more money, long run, than a
“great” player who is vulnerable to tilt.
Page 22 September 2004
Column: The Poker PunditTM