Page 25 - March 2016 • Southern California Gaming Guide

TPro Playbook: False Conclusions
his column was inspired by the following article“Your Brain is Primed to Reach False Conclusions” online at http:// vethirtyeight.com/features/your-brain-is-primed- to-reach-false-conclusions/, although the author of that article shouldn’t be blamed
for the direction it inspired me to take.
e vethirtyeight.com website, one of my favorites, takes a mathematical and statistical approach to analyzing a number of di erent types of situations. e particular article cited above looked at the case of a child having a seizure
5 minutes before he was supposed to receive an unrelated vaccination from his doctor. e parents in this type of case typically do not see any correlation between the impending vaccination and the seizure. If, however, the child had the seizure 10 minutes later — immediately following the vaccination—many parents would erroneously conclude that the vaccination caused the seizure simply because the injection came rst.
ink you’re immune from such false conclusions? Try these situations on for size:
a. For three days in a row, you play one hour of $1 NSU (Not So Ugly) video poker at Casino A and each day you lose. On each of those days you immediately walk across the street and play one hour of $1 NSU video poker at Casino B and win. On the fourth day, you have time for only one hour of play at one of these casinos. Which one is the smarter play for you?
b. You and a friend both enter the weekly drawing at a local casino. You both have 3,000 tickets in the drum. Your friend gets chosen and you don’t. e following week, your friend has 2,400 tickets and you have 3,400 tickets. Even with this disparity, your friend is again called, and again, you are not. Do you conclude that your friend is luckier than you or that these drawings are unfair?
c. In the game you’re playing, on a hand like 33456 of mixed suits, according to the strategy card you’ve purchased from me (thank you very much!) and the computer software you use for practice, the correct play is to hold the pair of 3s. Very frequently, however, you’ve noticed that when you hold the 3s, the rst card dealt is either a 2 or a 7, either of which would have made the straight. Are you strongly tempted to use that evidence to go for the straight in the
future rather than hold the pair?
In situation a, the decision as to which is the smarter play should be based on the expected bene tsyouwillreceivefromthetwocasinos including how much free play you earn, what you expect the players club mailers to be, which casino has the better food comps, and whether it is easier to breathe in one of the casinos than another.
In situation b, two drawings is way too little evidence to conclude that either your friend is luckier than you (extremely unlikely) or that the drawing is unfair (possible, but unlikely the case).
In situation c, the smart play is to stick with the strategy. Most players are not good at collecting data on hands and correctly remembering what happened.
Wewillgeta2ora7eighttimesoutof47,orabout one time in six. Some of those who get the normal number of would-be completed straights have an incorrect memory because when they have drawn the card that would have completed the straight, it leaves an out-sized impression.
So how are these cases di erent? In the all, I’m basically recommending that you ignore a small amount of evidence when you draw your conclusions.
Video poker is pretty much a solved game. Yes, you have winning streaks and losing streaks, but the properplayiswellknowntothinking,educated players. e games, at least in Nevada, are fair. Yes, the game has some random elements to it and it’s de nitely possible that you’ll succeed and your friend won’t, but that’s not the smart way to bet.
It’s likely that successful gamblers don’t have the same thought processes as “regular” people. Professional gamblers certainly do not think like most recreational gamblers. As a professional gambler, I think this is a good thing. It gives me an edge. Until recreational gamblers learn to re ne the way they think, they will never catch up. And it’s for them to decide whether or not they want to catch up.
Listen to Bob’s radio show Gambling with an Edge, on Tuesday mornings 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. Paci c Time on the Internet at vegasallnetradio.com. An archive of past radio shows as well as Dancer’s products may be ordered at bobdancer.com or at 1-800- 244-2224 M–F 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Paci c Time.
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MARCH 2016
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAMING GUIDE
PAGE 25
Video Poker with Bob Dancer